AGP Executive Report

Lebanon–Greece Security Talks: President Joseph Aoun urged Greece to back Lebanon’s army and official security forces, pushing for a simultaneous deal: full Israeli withdrawal and the extension of state authority over all weapons held outside control. Regional Energy & Shipping Risk: Qatar called for de-escalation after Iranian attacks on the UAE and Jordan, warning that escalation hurts everyone and urging a return to US-Iran negotiations and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. US-Iran Economic Standoff: Iran said it would reciprocate if the US honors a June interim deal, as oil prices rose amid renewed exchanges and reports of tankers under fire near Hormuz. Southern Lebanon Damage: Reports from Houla and Mansouri describe widespread home and infrastructure destruction, with forests and olive fields burned as debates continue over who controls the south. EU Defence Supply Pressure: EU defence ministers in Wicklow discussed Ukraine’s air-defence interceptor shortage and urged partners to transfer expiring systems. Lebanon Real Estate Rebound: After a March conflict shock, Lebanon’s property market saw a faster recovery in May–July, with transactions rising month-on-month, though still below 2025 levels. Hospitality/Construction Impact on Business: Radisson is shifting its Middle East strategy toward faster, asset-light growth via conversions, franchises, and branded residences—while Lebanon’s broader instability keeps pressuring development timelines.

Southern Lebanon Ceasefire Under Strain: “Israeli” forces kept violating the ceasefire in the south, with reports of home fires, artillery shelling, drone activity, and strikes that also hit agricultural areas and infrastructure. Hormuz Energy Shock: The U.S. struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to deploy sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Iran-linked missile and drone retaliation; crude prices jumped and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to the lowest level since 1982. Lebanon Sanctions & Finance: OFAC targeted a Hizballah cash courier network moving funds via commercial flights across Lebanon, Türkiye, the UAE and Iran, while also re-designating Hizballah for service to the IRGC-QF. Qatar’s Lebanon Footprint: A new report says Qatar is expanding influence in Lebanon through investment, military support and mediation, including funding and infrastructure involvement. EU Policy Signal: EU defence ministers met in Wicklow with Lebanon and maritime security expected on the agenda. Local Business & Trade: UAE and Lebanon business ties got a boost via renewed joint business council activity and chamber-level agreements. Housing Permitting Tech: Cities are turning to AI to speed up housing application reviews, supported by new federal funding for automated permitting systems.

Lebanon–Iran Diplomacy: Beirut welcomed Iranian FM Abbas Araghchi’s push for ties with the Lebanese government, urging “dealing with states first” over factions, as Lebanon’s foreign ministry said it expects the same “rationality” from counterparts. Middle East Shipping & Energy Risk: The EU Aviation Safety Agency extended Gulf airspace warnings and kept advice to avoid Iran, Iraq and Lebanon airspace through end-September amid renewed US-Iran hostilities; meanwhile, US strikes on Larak Island and Iran’s missile response keep Strait of Hormuz logistics in focus. Lebanon’s Business Links: UAE and Lebanon moved to revive/expand joint business council work, including an inaugural meeting in Beirut, signaling renewed private-sector trade momentum. Downstream Petroleum Oversight: Ghana’s NPA ordered Sentuo Oil Refinery to stop alleged discriminatory marketing arrangements tied to a Lebanese intermediary, raising concerns over prepaid product non-delivery and contract disputes. Payments & Regional Finance: Visa and Mastercard processed first international card transactions in Syria as US delisted Syria from its state sponsor of terrorism list, a step that could reopen parts of the financial rails.

UAE–Lebanon Trade Push: The UAE and Lebanon revived their joint business council after an agreement between the Federation of UAE Chambers and the Lebanese chambers federation, aiming to boost market intelligence, trade, investment, and joint ventures, with discussions also flagging sectors like logistics and agriculture. Energy & Solar Reality Check: A Lebanese homeowner shared multi-year solar inverter data showing big seasonal swings—panels can’t deliver peak output unless household consumption (and storage) matches demand, a practical lesson for Lebanon’s outage-driven solar adoption. Downstream Petroleum Dispute: Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority ordered Sentuo Oil Refinery to stop alleged discriminatory marketing arrangements tied to a Lebanese-linked intermediary, after complaints of non-delivery of prepaid products and locked-up funds disrupting downstream trading. Archaeology Under Pressure: Lebanese heritage work is reportedly stalled in southern areas due to renewed fighting, threatening delays at sites including a Roman temple and older olive-press finds. Regional Shipping Tension: US strikes on Iranian mine-launch preparations in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s retaliation keep energy logistics and regional trade risk front and center.

UAE–Lebanon Business Push: The Federation of UAE Chambers of Commerce and Industry signed an MoU with Lebanon’s FCCIAL to set up a Joint UAE–Lebanon Business Council, aiming to target priority sectors and unlock new trade, investment, and joint ventures after the UAE-Lebanon Business Forum in Beirut. Southern Lebanon Security Disruption: Israeli forces carried out renewed heavy artillery shelling and airstrikes across southern Lebanon, hitting areas including the Zawtar River corridor, Ali al-Taher heights, and towns around Nabatieh, despite a nominal ceasefire. Defense Budget Pressure: Senior Israeli defense officials warned that a funding freeze tied to a budget dispute is threatening IDF readiness, with shortages affecting munitions and equipment and major procurement deals reportedly collapsing. Regional Trade & Travel Risks: The US updated travel advisories for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, citing security risks linked mainly to Iran and noting disruptions to commercial aviation. Lebanon’s Private-Sector Culture & Growth: A Fortune profile highlights NAYA’s fast-casual Mediterranean expansion, with the founder describing how Lebanese food scaled in the US—an indirect read-through for Lebanon’s own food and hospitality ambitions.

Lebanon’s Heritage Under Pressure: Archaeologists say excavations are set to resume after Israel-Hezbollah fighting slowed digs, with recent finds including a Roman temple site in Maasser al-Shouf and other discoveries across Lebanon’s long history. Southern Lebanon Civil Infrastructure Hit: Reports say Israeli forces detonated an elderly care home in Hula as part of engineering operations, raising fresh humanitarian concerns. Local Business Spotlight: Lebanon entrepreneurs are highlighting community partnerships at Mike’s Meaty Jerky, with the business shipping nationwide and promoting rotating flavors. Regional Trade & Finance Signals: Syria’s removal from the US State Sponsor of Terrorism list is reported to have enabled normal card payments again, a sign of easing barriers to Syria’s re-entry into global commerce. Security Funding Watch: Israel’s defense budget dispute is said to be delaying procurement and threatening operational readiness—an issue that can spill into regional industry and logistics.

Manufacturing Expansion: D-A Lubricant Co. plans a $17m expansion in Lebanon, Indiana, building a new 115,000 sq-ft grease facility with automated blending, packaging and quality control, targeting production in 2029 and creating 10 jobs. Local Tech for Infrastructure: A Lebanese engineer-backed platform, Baladi Map, is rolling out as a free website and iOS app that lets residents document road and infrastructure problems with photos and locations, pushing municipalities to act. Housing Permitting Push: Cities are increasingly using AI to speed housing approvals by helping developers submit complete applications and flag errors, supported by a new $200m annual federal Innovation Fund and up to $3m HUD grants for automated code-permitting systems. Food Safety Watch: Lebanon-area restaurant inspections list multiple “pass” results, but also highlight sanitation issues at a Lebanon County venue, including dirty nacho cheese machines and improper cleaning of refrigeration equipment. Regional Trade & Shipping: Iran and Oman say they’ve agreed on a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, while Iran links any reopening to US commitments, keeping maritime access and energy logistics central to the region’s business outlook.

Infrastructure & Civic Tech: A new Lebanese app, Baladi Map, lets residents photograph local problems and publish them on a map to pressure municipalities to fix broken roads and unsafe infrastructure. Diplomacy & Energy Trade: Iran’s president says the Strait of Hormuz could reopen if the U.S. meets commitments under the Islamabad MoU, with Oman agreeing on a passage route; Iran links reopening to lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets, investment, and ending the Lebanon war. Regional Business Links: The UAE-Lebanon Business Forum is driving fresh private-sector partnerships, including chamber-to-chamber cooperation moves involving Ras Al Khaimah and Lebanon’s Bekaa/Zahle. Defense Industry Signal: UK confirms HMS Bulwark’s transfer to Brazil as part of a broader amphibious ship partnership with the Netherlands, highlighting ongoing shipbuilding and maritime capability investment. Local Industry Note: Lebanon’s SMLC is named PepsiCo’s 2025 Bottler of the Year, underscoring continued food-and-beverage production strength.

UAE–Lebanon Trade Push: The UAE’s Minister of Foreign Trade met Lebanon’s President and key ministers in Baabda, focusing on stronger bilateral ties, private-sector-led investment, industrial development, and digital cooperation. Strait of Hormuz Shipping Shock: Iran says Hormuz reopening depends on U.S. acceptance of conditions tied to ending wars in Lebanon, Gaza and Syria, while the U.S. claims lanes are cleared and shipping is being supported—leaving commercial traffic far below pre-war levels. Regional Mediation: Qatar’s PM visited Tehran to revive U.S.–Iran dialogue, discussing a temporary Iran–Oman corridor and mine-clearing to restore freedom of navigation. Lebanon Sovereignty Debate: A renewed argument in Lebanon over extending UNIFIL’s mandate frames peacekeeping as economic convenience rather than a sovereignty strategy. Industry & Services Note: Lebanon-related business activity also shows up via the UAE-Lebanon Business Forum and the launch of a $3m behavioral health and workforce hub in Dearborn serving the Lebanese diaspora. Cyber Security: A report links “GoCaracal” malware to Dark Caracal, using Ethereum smart contracts to keep command links resilient.

UAE–Lebanon Business Push: The UAE’s foreign trade minister wrapped up a Beirut forum with President Joseph Aoun, pledging support for Lebanon’s economic development and stability; four agreements were signed, including a UAE–Lebanon Business Council and chamber links, with Emirati firms eyeing farming research and greenhouses. Lebanon–Gulf Trade & Investment: Separate UAE officials also stressed translating dialogue into “measurable outcomes,” signaling a renewed private-sector push after years of Gulf caution tied to regional politics. Regional Shipping Pressure (Hormuz): Iran’s top security council head linked any Strait of Hormuz reopening to broader regional war-ending commitments, while Qatar renewed mediation in Tehran as the US keeps economic pressure. Lebanon Conflict Impact: Reports say Israeli strikes and drone attacks hit southern Lebanon, including an industrial area in Kfar Rumman, underscoring disruption risks for local industry. Sanctions & Trade Isolation (Iran): AP reports the US is escalating “economic outcast” tactics, pressuring countries to cut financial dealings with Iran—an indirect drag on regional commerce. Syria Payments Breakthrough: Visa and Mastercard processed Syria’s first international card payments after US delisting, a sign of potential re-entry for regional trade and retail.

Lebanon Food & Retail Enforcement: Lebanese authorities arrested “Dr Food” (Georges Dib), alleging drug-laced pastries and international trafficking tied to a prior hashish-in-cakes case, after months on the run and a life sentence in absentia. Local Manufacturing & Bottling: Societe Moderne Libanaise Pour Le Commerce (SMLC) was named PepsiCo’s 2025 Bottler of the Year, citing sustained investment, local production expansion (including Gatorade lines), and multi-year volume and revenue growth. Regional Trade & Construction Inputs: Kurdistan Region Investment Authority says it has issued 900 investment permits since 2019 and is pushing self-sufficiency in construction materials like cement and reinforcing steel, with plans to expand into bricks and electrical materials. Energy & Shipping Risk (Hormuz): Iran-Oman talks continue on a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor and mine-clearing, while shipping transits remain low; the wider standoff keeps oil and fertilizer pressures in focus. Cross-border Security/Industry: Canada has moved to deport a former Iranian mining-industry official accused of helping fund Iran-backed groups, spotlighting how mineral revenues can link to regional conflict financing.

Lebanon–UAE Business Push: Lebanon hosted a delegation of 80+ UAE economic leaders and private-sector figures to set up a Lebanese-Emirati business council, aiming for “first-mover advantage” in logistics, agriculture, energy, aviation and tourism as relations thaw. Strait of Hormuz Trade Risk: Iran and Oman are still negotiating a temporary Hormuz corridor and revenue-sharing, but Iran says the strait won’t open unless U.S. conditions are met—keeping a major global shipping chokepoint in focus. Lebanon Civilian Impact: UN experts warned of racial discrimination amid civilian deaths, mass displacement and destruction in Lebanon tied to Israeli military operations. Local Security & Cooperation: The Lebanese Army commander visited Italy to discuss military cooperation and post-UNIFIL roles, with Italy reiterating support for Lebanon’s army. Agriculture Damage Claim: Lebanese officials accused Israel of burning forests and farmland in the south, with Lebanon’s CNRS citing large areas affected since 2023. Sanctions & Finance: A U.S. Treasury-linked report described a cash-smuggling network moving funds for Hezbollah via commercial flights connecting Lebanon, Türkiye, the UAE and Iran.

Lebanon–Israel Environment & War Impact: Lebanese officials say Israeli military activity has sparked wildfires that burned about 160 sq km since 2023, with half the area agricultural, as extreme heat worsens losses in southern villages. UN Human Rights Pressure: The UN CERD committee warned that racial discrimination cannot be suspended in armed conflict, citing civilian deaths, mass displacement and dehumanizing rhetoric tied to Israel’s operations in Lebanon. Humanitarian Comms & Creative Tech: Lebanese creative leader Kaysar Daou expanded Phoemx’s creative leadership role, aiming to help NGOs and SMEs turn complex humanitarian messages into stronger digital visuals. Maritime Energy Risk: Iran and Oman resumed talks on a temporary Strait of Hormuz corridor, including mine-clearing, as shipping remains disrupted and global oil and fertilizer flows face uncertainty. Regional Food Security: UN officials warned a “triple chokepoint crisis” (Hormuz, Red Sea, Black Sea) is driving record conflict-driven hunger, with Lebanon among the hardest hit. Local Business/Infrastructure: Lebanon Seaboard Corporation marked its 80th year, highlighting long-running local industry presence.

Lebanon Economy: The World Bank projects Lebanon’s GDP will contract 6.4% in 2026 as renewed conflict derails a fragile recovery, adding pressure to already strained public finances. Energy & Trade: Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply to about 5 million barrels per day, while crude prices hover near $90/bbl as shipping risks and attacks linked to the wider conflict keep supply disruptions elevated. Diplomacy & Shipping Security: Iran says it has restarted talks with Oman on a temporary navigational corridor and mine-clearing for Hormuz traffic, as the US expands sanctions and warns partners over Iran-linked activity. Regional Business Climate: Syria’s removal from the US state sponsors of terrorism list is expected to ease access to international banking and investment, though Syria still faces anti-money-laundering constraints. Local Industry/Services: A Lebanon man was hospitalized after a motorcycle crash near a road construction zone in Indiana, underscoring how infrastructure works can affect safety and logistics. Fraud Watch (US data): BBB Scam Tracker reports show ongoing online purchase and phishing losses across multiple US cities named “Lebanon” in the dataset, reinforcing the need for stronger consumer protection and payment verification.

Lebanon Power Crunch: A new analysis warns Lebanon’s electricity reform is now a feasibility problem, not just a plan problem—limited capital, uncertain political will, security risks, and global demand/lead times for power equipment are delaying any fast fix. US-Iran Sanctions & Oil Shock: Iran vowed retaliation after the US unveiled expanded “economic D-Day” sanctions, while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly hit its lowest daily count since May—raising stakes for regional energy and logistics that Lebanon depends on. Southern Lebanon Strikes: Fresh Israeli air and artillery actions in south Lebanon reportedly breached a US-brokered framework, adding pressure to an already strained economy and services. Local Industry Expansion: D-A Lubricant Co. announced a $17m Lebanon (Boone County) expansion, adding a new facility and aiming to create 10 jobs by 2029, with products used across automotive, mining, and agriculture. Meta Data Center Funding: Meta says Lebanon (Jeffersonville) will receive part of a $1bn “Future Is For Everyone” fund tied to its AI data center footprint, though details remain thin.

Humanitarian & Food Security: US Secretary of State Randeep Sarai wrapped up a Lebanon and Jordan visit, announcing nearly $80m in international assistance aimed at urgent humanitarian needs, food security, and inclusive economic opportunities, including meetings with Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun, PM Nawaf Salam, and Speaker Nabih Berri, plus tours of a UN Women-supported shelter in Tyre and a Lebanese women-led dairy enterprise in the country’s production sector. Energy History & Agriculture: A Lebanon historical feature traces how electrification reshaped dairy and poultry work in the 1930s–1950s, turning farm routines faster and changing labor patterns. Education & Local Services: Lebanon schools in the US state of New Hampshire welcome students back with a “Magic in the Mess” theme and a 2030 strategic plan focused on instruction, inclusion, and new staffing. Regional Security Impact on Lebanon: Reports describe Israeli forces crossing a “yellow line” buffer in south Lebanon, demolishing roads and homes and setting agricultural fields on fire, alongside drone strikes that killed two teenagers in Nabatieh. Trade & Sanctions Pressure: US Treasury unveiled expanded Iran sanctions with a push for partners to cut ties or face dollar-system consequences, while Saudi Arabia and France urged diplomacy and normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.