AGP Executive Report

Power and Transport: Prime Minister Nawaf Salam says plans are underway to boost electricity supply at lower cost, fund household solar loans and add more than 250 buses. The government is also pursuing unpaid taxes and quarry and mining fees, with collection notices worth hundreds of millions of dollars issued to operators. Shipping and Trade: South Korea’s HMM is transporting winter clothing to Beirut for humanitarian relief, while Beirut and Tripoli ports have joined a wider trade network through the IMEC Ports Club. Electricity Reform: Energy Minister Joe Saddi is boycotting cabinet sessions over arrears owed to Electricité du Liban and stalled reforms, underscoring tensions over the sector’s finances. Food and Agriculture: Lebanon’s wineries are struggling with war and weak demand, while conflict is also putting pressure on agricultural production.

Household Pressure: Lebanon’s cost-of-living crisis is deepening as fuel, electricity and essentials become more expensive. A policy survey found 57% of respondents named economic insecurity as their main concern, while nearly four in ten had cut spending on basics. Power Sector: Energy Minister Joe Saddi is boycotting Cabinet sessions over the electricity file. The sector supplies only about a third of national demand, leaving households reliant on costly private generators; investors are seeking greater stability before committing funds to new plants. Trade and Logistics: Beirut and Tripoli ports have joined a wider trade-network initiative, putting Lebanon in discussions on regional transport links as instability disrupts shipping and supply chains. Food and Drink: Lebanon’s wineries are struggling with war-related disruption and weak demand, while wider conflict is adding pressure to food production and supply.

Power Sector: Energy Minister Joe Saddi says Lebanon’s power plants cover only about a third of demand, leaving households reliant on private generators. He is boycotting Cabinet sessions until the government acts on electricity, but told President Joseph Aoun he remains committed to his ministerial duties. Agriculture: Lebanon and Spain are pursuing cooperation on irrigation upgrades, water reuse and agricultural insurance, with Agriculture Minister Nizar Hani visiting Madrid for the Fruit Attraction trade fair. Trade Links: Lebanon has expressed interest in joining the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, whose French envoy says multiple routes could make trade more resilient; existing members may consider expanding the network at a ministerial meeting later this year. Food Security: FAO is urging urgent investment in seeds, livestock and water to protect food production and livelihoods across the Near East and North Africa as conflict and economic shocks deepen hunger.

Lebanon Energy & Power: Energy Minister Joe Saddi says he will boycott cabinet sessions over unpaid electricity bills and arrears to Électricité du Liban, estimated at about $300m, while supply remains limited to a few hours daily and nontechnical losses are put near 30%. Regional Trade & Ports: Lebanon is pushing into the IMEC corridor via the new IMEC Ports Club, with Beirut and Tripoli named in a declaration aimed at boosting trade, energy/clean energy links, and connectivity across the India–Middle East–Europe route. Regional Logistics (Rail): Lebanese and Syrian officials met in Beirut to discuss restoring a Tripoli-to-Syria railway link via Homs, positioning Lebanon as a land gateway as Gulf states seek alternatives to Strait of Hormuz shipping routes. Business/Markets Context: A World Bank update warns the Iran conflict is driving major economic costs across MENAAP, with gasoline and diesel price spikes hitting Lebanon hard and adding fiscal pressure amid high public debt. Security & Supply Risks: UN and regional reporting continues to flag how ongoing fighting across Lebanon and the wider Middle East is disrupting food and energy flows, raising costs and uncertainty for industry and consumers.

Electricity & Investment: Lebanon’s Energy Minister Joe Saddi says he will boycott Cabinet sessions over EDL arrears and exemptions, arguing Lebanon’s core problem is only about one-third of needed generation capacity and calling for private-sector investment backed by financial and security guarantees; he also pushes a flexible tariff tied to fuel prices and targets “non-technical losses” around 30% as “theft.” Regional Trade & Connectivity: France’s IMEC envoy Gérard Mestrallet says Egypt, Lebanon and Oman are interested in joining the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, with an IMEC ministerial meeting expected later this year to consider expanding membership. Finance & Reforms: Economy Minister Amer Bisat met an EBRD delegation to discuss support for public-sector modernization, private-sector lending, renewable energy, and SMEs. Food & Supply Risks: The World Bank cut its 2026 Middle East growth outlook, citing the Iran war’s pressure on energy supplies and logistics, with knock-on effects for tourism and broader economic activity. Security Tech Concern: A report claims “biological tracking” using genetically modified soil bacteria could be used to tag people via clothing and tires, raising new concerns for southern Lebanon. Sports & Lifestyle (Lebanon-linked): Lebanese basketball legend Fadi El Khatib’s Club 15 sports hub in Dubai opens this October, signaling continued regional investment in sports infrastructure.

EBRD Reform Push: Lebanon’s Economy Minister Amer Bisat met an EBRD delegation to discuss public-sector modernization, governance reforms, and new lending for private industry, renewable energy, and SMEs—aimed at accelerating the reform agenda. Housing Delivery: The Lebanon Housing Authority’s first modern apartment development, The Highlands (52 garden-style units), is nearing completion and is expected to welcome residents before year-end, signaling a shift in how public housing can be delivered. South Lebanon Security Talks: Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam asked the U.S. for a binding timetable to “operationalize” the Trilateral Framework on Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal, but Beirut continues to treat deadlines as flexible while verification and pilot-zone disputes stall progress. Regional Energy/Trade Pressure: Analysts warn that uncertainty around Middle East energy supplies is feeding oil-market volatility, while China-EU trade tensions are escalating into sectors that include agriculture and chemicals—raising knock-on risks for regional supply chains. Arts & Culture (Lebanon-linked): Lebanese singer Fadel Chaker is set to return to the stage in Riyadh Season after 14 years, with his case still tied to Lebanon’s military court process.

Strait of Hormuz talks: Iran says any reopening depends on seven U.S. preconditions, including ending the maritime blockade, lifting sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and halting military action affecting regional allies, with Tehran sending its list via Qatar and proposing a seven-day roadmap. South Lebanon state-building: PM Nawaf Salam visited Nabatieh to push for restoring state authority and securing conditions for a full Israeli withdrawal, while warning reconstruction needs far exceed government capacity. Lebanon’s war-hit environment: Reports accuse Israeli forces of deliberately igniting wildfires in southern Lebanon, including olive groves and agricultural areas, after the June ceasefire. Regional escalation pressures: Yemen’s Saudi-backed government announced a major campaign against the Houthis, raising risks for Red Sea shipping and broader Iran-linked conflict dynamics. Elections and media rules: Israel’s election committee ordered Netanyahu to remove social media videos using military/public resources without authorization, including footage from southern Lebanon. Local culture: Beirut-based singer Nour Chehab released “Jaloux,” blending guitar-led pop with drum grooves and French vocals.

Energy & Trade Diplomacy: Iran says reopening the Strait of Hormuz hinges on seven US preconditions, including ending a naval blockade, lifting oil export bans and sanctions, releasing frozen assets, and halting military action—while Tehran insists nuclear talks won’t be the focus. Regional Security & Shipping: The US signals possible escalation with additional forces heading to the Middle East as Iran weighs its response; meanwhile, Saudi-backed Yemen’s government announces a major campaign against the Houthis, raising risks for Red Sea shipping and energy flows. Lebanon Environment Under Fire: South Lebanon firefighters and residents accuse Israeli forces of deliberately igniting wildfires after bombardment, with drones reportedly striking responders and large swaths of woodland and olive/agricultural areas affected. Lebanon Economy & Power Costs: Lebanon’s electricity tariff dilemma returns to the spotlight as households and businesses weigh paying EDL versus relying on generators. Local Industry & Skills: Lebanon’s reconstruction and business capacity also show up indirectly via training and investment themes, including AI skills building for economic recovery and Lebanon-linked youth/skills initiatives.

Lebanon Budget Watch: Lebanon’s 2027 draft budget targets $6.87bn, with taxes expected to more than double 2024 levels while the economy shrinks—an approach economists call unrealistic, as the plan also leaves the banking-crisis losses sharing unresolved. Electricity & Costs: Lebanon’s electricity tariff dilemma is back in focus: pay more to EDL or more to private generators, as households and businesses keep absorbing higher energy costs. Accountability in Industry: A Lebanese judge indicted former Economy Minister Amin Salam on financial charges tied to alleged embezzlement, forgery, bribery and illicit enrichment, raising pressure on state institutions that oversee trade and industry. War’s Hit on Agriculture: UN concerns are mounting over how the latest Lebanon war is affecting food supplies and agriculture, with demand and supply both under strain. Regional Energy Shock: Iran says reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on seven US preconditions, while US strikes and Lebanon hostilities add uncertainty for global fuel flows that can quickly spill into Lebanon’s import costs. Lebanon’s Business Ecosystem: Takreem Foundation and Afel marked 15 years supporting Lebanese children, highlighting mentorship and long-term human capital as Lebanon’s economy struggles.

Lebanon Budget Watch: Lebanon’s draft 2027 budget targets $6.87bn in spending while pushing tax revenue to more than double 2024 levels, even as the economy is expected to shrink—an assumption economists call unrealistic, with the state still wrestling over how to share banking-crisis losses. Accountability in Finance: A Lebanese judge indicted former Economy Minister Amin Salam on charges including embezzlement, forgery, bribery and illicit enrichment; he and others deny wrongdoing, as Lebanon’s institutions face fresh pressure to deliver reforms. Electricity Cost Crunch: Lebanon’s electricity tariff dilemma is back in focus—whether households pay more to EDL or rely on costlier generator power. Food & Industry Signals: A Lebanon County restaurant inspection roundup flagged sanitation and food-handling issues, underscoring ongoing pressure on food operators amid weak demand and conflict. Regional Trade & Shipping Risk: With US-Iran tensions and Red Sea security concerns, oil and shipping uncertainty is feeding into costs that can quickly hit Lebanon’s import-dependent industries. Construction & Real Estate: Beirut’s skyline story continues with new luxury apartment projects in relatively safer areas, even as war and the 2019 crisis keep the broader market fragile.

Lebanon’s wine sector under pressure: At Vinifest in Sin El Fil, wineries say war and weak demand have cut domestic sales sharply (down 20% to 40% for some producers), even as many kept production going by protecting vineyards. Electricity cost squeeze: Lebanon’s tariff dilemma is back in focus as households weigh paying EDL versus relying on generators. Food safety checks: Lebanon County restaurant inspections (Oct. 3) flagged issues like rodent activity and food-handling lapses, with some sites passing after corrections. South Lebanon security and livelihoods: Reports of an Israeli strike injuring a Lebanese soldier and civilians underscore how instability keeps disrupting daily economic life. Construction and real estate despite the crisis: Beirut’s skyline story shows new apartment projects still selling in relatively safer areas, highlighting uneven recovery and shifting demand. Regional shipping risk for Lebanon-linked trade: Red Sea tensions and Bab el-Mandeb security concerns are again driving uncertainty for maritime logistics and prices. Local industry training: LAU ACE launched a HORECA leadership and project management program in Lebanon to support hospitality and related services.

Lebanon’s Electricity Tariff Dilemma: Energy Minister Joe Saddi floated a variable EDL tariff that would track oil prices, but it failed to pass Cabinet—leaving consumers squeezed as reduced EDL supply pushes more people toward costly private generators. Wine Industry Under Pressure: At Vinifest in Sin El Fil, Lebanon’s wineries reported steep domestic sales drops (20% to 40% in 2026 so far) as war and weak demand bite, even as some producers say output survived thanks to accessible vineyards. Beirut Real Estate Despite Crisis: Listings on OLX show luxury apartments under construction in “more stable” East Beirut, with prices climbing even amid war and economic strain—driven by relative safety and private investment. Infrastructure & Reconstruction Moves: PM Nawaf Salam said the Council for Development and Reconstruction launched 23 tenders in Nabatieh (roads, shelters, ambulances, comms) and is preparing more, including hospital rehabilitation and power/water network work. Local Logistics Disruption: Oak Street in Lebanon will close to traffic Oct. 6–9 for rail crossing repairs, with truck routes diverted. Regional Trade Watch: Lebanon’s business community may track Lebanon-adjacent market openings—Colombia secured Philippines sanitary approval to export beef and pork, a signal for food-agri trade flows.

Reconstruction & Public Works: PM Nawaf Salam said Lebanon’s Council for Development and Reconstruction has launched 23 tenders in Nabatieh, covering road clearing and repairs, shelter rehabilitation, ambulances, medical equipment, and satellite communications, with more hospital and power/water network work planned. Agriculture Under Pressure: The UN FAO warned that the latest Israel-Hezbollah conflict has affected or damaged about 22% of Lebanon’s agricultural land (around 56,000 hectares), disrupting farmers’ access to land and inputs like fertilizer and raising contamination risks from unexploded ordnance. Food Security & Gender Impact: UN Women estimates the Middle East escalation could push an extra 11.7 million women and girls into food insecurity by end-2026, with Lebanon among the hardest hit by proportion. Regional Shipping & Energy Costs: Italy signaled it may boost its EU Red Sea naval mission contribution, tying any increase to wider European support as attacks keep shipping and transport costs elevated. Local Business & Services: Lebanon banks on mass AI training to rebuild its economy, while a separate report highlights how NGOs are shifting from rights work toward project delivery and training amid shrinking civic space.

Lebanon Reconstruction & Construction Supply: Project Lebanon 2026 in Beirut is drawing 16 Chinese firms pitching steel structures, expandable housing, security systems, and building materials, as companies look for local partners and distributors while Lebanon prepares for rebuilding, with particular interest in residential projects in Beirut and southern Lebanon. Defense & Maritime Risk: A tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a fire, while the wider Middle East security picture keeps pressuring shipping routes and energy chokepoints. Regional Energy/Infrastructure: Saudi-led coalition claims Houthi drones hit a power distribution station in Madinah, affecting a transformer but not the wider network—another reminder of how quickly infrastructure can be disrupted. Cross-border Business/Jobs: Pennsylvania announced a $152m Bell & Evans expansion (poultry processing) with 382 new jobs—useful context for investors tracking agri-food industrial capacity. Tech & UAVs: Moroccan startup Ballistic Defense System unveiled a GPS-denied attack drone prototype, aiming to reduce jamming/spoofing risks.

Lebanon–Algeria Industrial Ties: Lebanon’s Industry Minister Farid Kourtel met Algeria’s Economic, Social and Environmental Council chief Charles Arbid to push stronger economic and industrial cooperation and activate the Algerian-Lebanese Business Council. Marketplace Growth: Lebanon’s Giblox says it’s making progress on G1Mall, focusing on vendor onboarding efficiency, marketplace performance tracking, and fulfillment integration, with FasterCapital support ahead of seed discussions. Aviation Safety for Lebanon Region: The EU aviation safety agency advised airlines to avoid Saudi airspace and updated warnings affecting Lebanon, Iran and Iraq, reflecting heightened risk from Houthi attacks. Energy Prices Watch: Brent crude climbed back above $100 amid fragile US-Iran talks, with Iran’s conditions including ending hostilities across fronts such as Lebanon. UNIFIL Transition: UNIFIL’s planned end-of-2026 withdrawal is reshaping southern Lebanon’s monitoring and liaison setup, with UNTSO and a separate trilateral framework involving Lebanese and Israeli forces. Security & Finance Pressure: CENTEF reported Hezbollah acquired about $157m in weapons in 2024, largely provided by Iran, framing it as a supply-chain pressure point. Culture & Film: Lebanon’s 30th European Film Festival runs Oct. 8–17 at Metropolis Cinema, highlighting European cinema alongside Lebanese programming.

Hezbollah Sanctions Bill: A new U.S. Senate proposal aimed at disarming Hezbollah also admits the group’s staying power comes from its role in Lebanese daily life, pairing sanctions with state-backed infrastructure recovery, security funding, and civil service expansion. Lebanon Security & Infrastructure: Lebanon’s army says an explosion in Nabatieh wounded a soldier and three civilians after an initial Israeli-strike claim, later blaming a suspicious object; PM Salam also pushed in Washington to move forward on a stalled pilot-zone agreement. Aviation Incident: Netanyahu says Israel will join the investigation into a flydubai cockpit attack incident, with no confirmed link to Tehran yet. Local Skills & Industry: Lebanon’s Lyman Memorial High School opened a welding lab with industry-linked training and credentials via partnerships including Electric Boat and UConn. Housing Pressure: A Lebanon, NH report highlights how high rents can outpace wages, underscoring affordability stress that mirrors broader regional labor-market strain. Media & Tech: Russia’s SputnikPro program included Lebanon among countries invited to discuss AI in newsrooms and war journalism. Digital Trade: Kenya signed the Digital Cooperation Organization charter, with Lebanon listed among earlier approved candidates.